Will artificial intelligence (AI) replace human jobs? Despite widespread concerns, recent research from MIT, funded by the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab, suggests that AI systems may not replace humans as quickly as anticipated.
The study focused on computer vision systems, examining their integration into various work settings across 800 occupations.
The research found that while 36% of jobs in U.S. non-farm businesses involve tasks exposed to computer vision, only 8% have tasks with sufficient economic benefits to justify automation. The report emphasizes that the cost-benefit analysis of AI implementation in various occupations is crucial.
In many low-wage occupations with few tasks per person, the cost savings introduced by automation might not be significant enough to justify the investment.
For example, the study examined the potential use of computer vision in a bakery to visually check ingredient quality. While the potential savings from automating this task were around $14,000 per year, the researchers believed that the cost of developing, deploying, and maintaining a computer vision system outweighed the savings, making it economically unviable.
It’s important to note that the study specifically focused on computer vision, and the dynamics may differ for more versatile AI systems like multimodal large language models such as OpenAI’s GPT-4.
A separate study by OpenAI suggests that advanced AI systems like GPT-4 could impact 50% of workplace tasks for 19% of U.S. workers, potentially having a more significant effect on the workforce.
While the MIT study acknowledges the transformative potential of AI in the workplace, it emphasizes that the widespread integration of computer vision systems might not be as imminent as some expect.
Computer vision is currently capable of automating tasks representing 1.6% of worker wages in the U.S. economy, with only about 0.4% of the economy benefiting from cost savings through such automation.
Despite the study’s findings, it falls short by not considering long-term cost savings and the potential for increased efficiency over time. The ongoing debate about whether AI is a threat to human jobs or a complementary tool that enhances productivity is likely to continue as more case studies and reports emerge.
